How does the government successfully deliver its Warm Homes Plan? (Blog 1 of 2)
David Lennan, Chairman, National Warm Homes Council
The government's much-anticipated publication of its Warm Homes Plan (WHP) is due in the spring. But what should civil service policymakers include in the plan to ensure the government is able to successfully deliver it in the time frame to which it has committed?
In a two-part blog, and to coincide with a one-to-one meeting at Number 10 today on this very topic, I set out some considerations and priorities for the government in delivering its WHP. In this first blog, I explore the challenges confronting ministers and possible policy solutions. In the second to be published in February, I will examine the sectors to retrofit first and explore broader implications of delivery relating to finance, SMEs in the retrofit sector and the workforce needed to support such measures.
To provide some context, fuel poverty is quickly becoming a crisis waiting to happen. A recent report by Warm This Winter found that about 9 million people in Britain live in cold, damp homes and, as a result, are exposed to serious health risks now burdening the NHS.
Poorly insulated homes risk making matters worse, costing families hundreds of pounds in higher bills and increasing household emissions. 25% of a home’s heat is lost through an uninsulated roof and 8 million of them have less than half the required levels of insulation. A recent survey by NWHC reveals that one in three (35%) people do not know whether their loft has the government-recommended amount of insulation (270 mm).
The government has promised through its WHP that it will upgrade millions of houses in the UK to facilitate healthier and more energy-efficient homes. In recent announcements on the WHP, the government has committed to upgrading 300,000 homes by next year. These include a drive for private and social rented homes to achieve Energy Performance Certificate C or equivalent by 2030. It is also committed to investing in insulation and low-carbon heating, specifically through grants and planning reform to allow for more heat pumps.
These are positive steps, and we are certainly heading in the right direction. However, a lack of funding, long-term certainty, a skilled workforce as well as high initial costs and the complexity of retrofit factors have contributed to the under-delivery of government retrofit schemes in previous years.
In fact, the most successful period of retrofit in modern times was during the last Labour government and the Coalition, when their CERT and CESP schemes improved around 5 million homes in a little over 5 years.
This was a massive, successful programme, employing around 100,000 people. But this was in an era of generally fully (or mostly) funded measures through the utility charges on energy bills and the obligation on utility firms to spend this on energy efficiency, a large amount of media coverage and advertising, the availability of low-skilled/wage workers, and with most of the measures being simple (easy lofts and cavities, and low energy lighting). This is far from the case now.
A key challenge of the WHP confronting the current government is the ambitious target it has set itself to improve 5 million homes within this parliament. To achieve the broader goal of reaching EPC C for all domestic properties by 2035, 14.3 million homes will need retrofitting, according to the Committee for Climate Change. However, with only 250,000 homes retrofitted in 2023, scaling up to 5 million in the current timeframe appears unrealistic without significant policy and operational changes.
Another challenge of the WHP lies in assessing home energy upgrades due to the inadequacy of current EPCs. While reforms are underway, progress is slow, with the new Home Energy Model (HEM) still unresolved after its consultation closed in March 2024.
The HEM has notable flaws, such as assuming loft insulation remains effective indefinitely, despite evidence of degradation. Without an updated model, new EPCs may not be ready until the end of this parliament or later, forcing reliance on the current, flawed system in the interim.
A key solution, therefore, to creating warmer homes across the UK is ensuring the WHP includes accurate implementation of the new HEM and updates to the Future Homes Standard (FHS).
The HEM, designed to replace SAP, aims to provide precise assessments of home energy performance and support net-zero goals. To maximise its impact, the HEM must incorporate in-use data to show that homes with loft insulation protection are more energy-efficient than those without, incentivising the adoption of this measure.
Additionally, the FHS should require loft insulation protection as standard in all new homes to avoid immediate retrofitting. Together, these measures would drive energy efficiency, support green growth and ensure UK homes are built to higher standards.
However, ministerial and civil service responses to these challenges focus on boosting loft insulation at the expense of protecting it. Boosting rates of home insulation will simply not be enough to improve the energy efficiency of homes. This is because insulation diminishes in effectiveness without protection – reducing its thermal resistance by at least 50% and often quite soon after installation – mainly due to compression, as 80% of households use their lofts for storage. Consequently, homeowners will need to spend again to replace their insulation.
Since only 1% of UK homes have their loft insulation protected, the government should promote insulation protection as a key requirement of loft insulation installation in new builds and in the retrofitting of current homes.
With the government planning to unveil details of its WHP in the coming months, it’s crucial that the government ring-fences more investment for home energy efficiency and updates its Plan to include the changes needed so warmer homes become a reality for millions of families across Britain.
The government has the opportunity to support homeowners in making the critical retrofits needed to turn the tide on the UK’s unhealthy, heat-leaking and expensive-to-heat homes. However, the WHP must prioritise affordable and accessible solutions, such as loft insulation protection. Such measures will be crucial not only in heating homes in the short term but also in tackling fuel poverty and carbon emissions for years to come.
